Okay, cool…
So, how much longer before Nvidia stops slapping a “$500-600 RTX XX70” label on a $300 RTX XX60 product with each new generation?
The thinly-veiled 75-100% price increases aren’t fun for those of us not constantly-touching-themselves over AI.
Try asking DeepSeek something about Xi Jinping. "Sorry, it’s beyond my current scope’ :-) Wondering why even it cannot cite his official party biography :-)
It’s easy to mod the software to get rid of those censors
Part of why the US is so afraid is because anyone can download it and start modding it easily, and because the rich make less money
I’ve never been so happy to cancel a subscription.
nvidia falling doesn’t make much sense to me, GPUs are still needed to run the model. Unless Nvidia is involved in its own AI model or something?
DeepSeek proved you didn’t need anywhere near as much hardware to train or run an even better AI model
Imagine what would happen to oil prices if a manufacturer comes out with a full ice car that can run 1000 miles per gallon… Instead of the standard American 3 miles per 1.5 gallons hehehe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
more efficient use of oil will lead to increased demand, and will not slow the arrival or the effects of peak oil.
Energy demand is infinite and so is the demand for computing power because humans always want to do MORE.
If you need far less computing power to train the models, far less gpus are needed, and that hurts nvidia
does it really need less power? I’m playing around with it now and I’m pretty impressed so far. it can do math, at least.
That’s the claim, it has apparently been trained using a fraction of the compute power of the GPT models and achieves similar results.
fascinating. my boss really bought into the tech bro bullshit, every time we get coffee as a team, he’s always going on and on about how chatGPT will be the savior of humanity, increase productivity so much that we’ll have a 2 day work week, blah blah blah.
I’ve been on his shit list lately because i had to take some medical leave and didn’t deliver my project on time.
Now that this thing is open sourced, I can bring it to him, tell him it out performs even chatgpt O1 or whatever it is, and tell him that we can operate it locally. I’ll be off the shit list and back into his good graces and maybe even get a raise.
But I feel like that will just lead to more training with the same (or more) hardware with a more efficient model. Bitcoin mining didn’t slow down only because it got harder. However I don’t know enough about the training process. I assume more efficient use of the hardware would allow for larger models to be trained on the same hardware and training data?
I should really start looking into shorting stocks. I was looking at the news and Nvidia’s stock and thought “huh, the stock hasn’t reacted to these news at all yet, I should probably short this”.
And then proceeded to do fuck all.
I guess this is why some people are rich and others are like me.
It’s pretty difficult to open a true short position. Providers like Robinhood create contract for differences which are subject to their TOS.
I’m so happy this happened. This is really a power move from China. The US was really riding the whole AI bubble. By “just” releasing a powerful open-source AI model they’ve fucked the not so open US AI companies. I’m not sure if this was planned from China or whether this is was really just a small company doing this because they wanted to, but either way this really damages the western economy. And its given western consumers a free alternative. A few million dollars invested (if we are to believe the cost figures) for a major disruption.
Socialism/Communism will always outcompete the capitalists. And they know it, which is why the US invades, topples, or sanctions every country that moves towards worker controlled countries.
We need to open source the whole government. Decentralized communism.
Okay seriously this technology still baffles me. Like its cool but why invest so much in an unknown like AIs future ? We could invest in people and education and end up with really smart people. For the cost of an education we could end up with smart people who contribute to the economy and society. Instead we are dumping billions into this shit.
And you could pay people to use an abacus instead of a calculator. But the advanced tech improves productivity for everyone, and helps their output.
If you don’t get the tech, you should play with it more.
I get the tech, and still agree with the preposter. I’d even go so far as that it probably worsens a lot currently, as it’s generating a lot of bullshit that sounds great on the surface, but in reality is just regurgitated stuff that the AI has no clue of. For example I’m tired of reading AI generated text, when a hand written version would be much more precise and has some character at least…
Try getting a quick powershell script from Microsoft help or spiceworks. And then do the same on GPT
It’s one thing to be ignorant. It’s quite another to be confidently so in the face of overwhelming evidence that you’re wrong. Impressive.
“Improves productivity for everyone”
Famously only one class benefits from productivity, while one generates the productivity. Can you explain what you mean, if you don’t mean capitalistic productivity?
I’m referring to output for amount of work put in.
I’m a socialist. I care about increased output leading to increased comfort for the general public. That the gains are concentrated among the wealthy is not the fault of technology, but rather those who control it.
Thank god for DeepSeek.
Because rulling class got high on the promise that they could finally eliminate workers as a cost and be independent from us.
It’s easier to sell people on the idea of a new technology or system that doesn’t have any historical precedent. All you have to do is list the potential upsides.
Something like a school or a workplace training programme, those are known quantities. There’s a whole bunch of historical and currently-existing projects anyone can look at to gauge the cost. Your pitch has to be somewhat realistic compared to those, or it’s gonna sound really suspect.
Look at it in another way, people think this is the start of an actual AI revolution, as in full blown AGI or close to it or something very capable at least. Personally I don’t think we’re anywhere near something like that with the current technology, I think it’s a dead end, but if there’s even a small possibility of it being true, you want to invest early because the returns will be insane if it pans out. Full blown AGI would revolutionize everything, it would probably be the next industrial revolution after the internet.
How would the investors profit from paying for someone’s education? By giving them a loan? Don’t we have enough problems with the student loan system without involving these assholes more?
Tech/Wall St constantly needs something to hype in order to bring in “investor” money. The “new technology-> product development -> product -> IPO” pipeline is now “straight to pump-and-dump” (for example, see Crypto currency).
The excitement of the previous hype train (self-driving cars) is no longer bringing in starry-eyed “investors” willing to quickly part ways with OPM. “AI” made a big splash and Tech/Wall St is going to milk it for all they can lest they fall into the same bad economy as that one company that didn’t jam the letters “AI” into their investor summary.
Tech has laid off a lot of employees, which means they are aware there is nothing else exciting in the near horizon. They also know they have to flog “AI” like crazy before people figure out there’s no “there” there.
That “investors” scattered like frightened birds at the mere mention of a cheaper version means that they also know this is a bubble. Everyone wants the quick money. More importantly they don’t want to be the suckers left holding the bag.
It’s like how revolutionary battery technology is always just months away.
For the cost of an education we could end up with smart people who contribute to the economy and society. Instead we are dumping billions into this shit.
Those are different "we"s.
Because the silicon valley bros had convinced the national security wonks in the Beltway that it was paramount for national security, technological leadership and economic prosperity.
I think this will go down as the biggest grift in history.
Kevin Walmsley reported on Deepseek 10 days ago. Last week, the smart money exited big tech. This week the panic starts.
I’m getting big dot-com 2.0 vibes from all of this.
Education doesn’t make a tech CEO ridiculously wealthy, so there’s no draw for said CEOs to promote the shit out of education.
Plus educated people tend to ask for more salary. Can’t do that and become a billionaire!
Was watching bbc news interview some American guy about this and wow they were really pushing that it’s no big deal and deepseek is way behind and a bit of a joke. Made claims they weren’t under cyber attack they just couldn’t handle having traffic etc.
Kinda making me root for China honestly.
What the fuck are markets when you can automate making money on them???
Ive been WTF about the stock market for a long time but now it’s obviously a scam.
The stock market is nothing more than a barometer for the relative peace of mind of rich people.
Great, a stock sale.
I think this prompted investors to ask “where’s the ROI?”.
Current AI investment hype isn’t based on anything tangible. At least the amount of investment isn’t, it is absurd to think that trillion dollars that was put in the space already, even before that Softbanks deal is going to be returned. The models still hallucinate as it is inherent to the architecture, we are nowhere near replacing the workers but we got chatbots that “when they work sometimes, then they are kind of good?” and mediocre off-putting pictures. Is there any value? Sure, it’s not NFTs. But the correction might be brutal.
Interestingly enough, DeepSeek’s model is released just before Q4 earning’s call season, so we will see if it has a compounding effect with another statement from big players that they burned massive amount of compute and USD only to get milquetoast improvements and get owned by a small Chinese startup that allegedly can do all that for 5 mil.
You fogot NSFW content, many people are making money using it. There is also AI advertising using fake models, very lucrative business.
I’m not saying that it doesn’t have any uses but the costs outpace the investments done by a mile. Current LLM and vLLMs help with efficiency to a degree but this is not sustainable and the correction is overdue.
I was making a joke, I agree with you it is over hyped. It basically just takes the training data mixes it up and gives you a result. It is not the so called life changing thing that they are advertising. It is good for writing email though.
I have a dirty suspicion that the “where’s the ROI?” talking point is actually a calculated and collaborated strategy by big wall street banks to panic retail investors to sell so they can gobble up shares at a discount - trump is going to be pumping (at minimum) hundreds of BILLIONS into these companies in the near future.
Call me a conspiracy guy, but I’ve seen this playbook many many times
I mean, I’m working on that tech and the evaluation boggles my mind. This is nowhere near worth what is put into it. It rides on empty promises that may or may not materialize (I can’t say with 100% certainty that a breakthrough happen), but current models are massively overvalued. I’ve seen that happen with ConvNets (Hinton saying we won’t need radiologists in five years in…2016, self-driving cars promised every two years, yadda yadda) but nothing to that scale.
hype isn’t based on anything tangible
So just like crypto
EDIT: The crypto bros out in full force… and right on cue proudly proclaiming they don’t understand the difference between the value of blockchain technology (which so far has not had a ton of real world value outside of mostly impractical database applications, other than furthering climate change and buying drugs) vs the SPECULATIVE value of coins since coins have no real value factors to back up their SPECULATIVE value. Stocks often have real value that back up their value, like company profits or products. Stop drinking kool aid to the point of literal zero critical thinking, jfc.
I think that the technology itself has been widely adopted and used. There are many examples in medicine, military, entertainment. But OpenAI and other hyperscalers are a bad business that burns through a loooot of cash. Same with Meta AI program. And while this has been a norm with tech darlings that they usually don’t break even for a long time, what’s unprecedented is the rate of loss and further calls for even more money even though there isn’t any clear path from what we have to AGI. All hangs on Altman and other biz-dev vague promises, threats and a “vibe” that they create.
I disagree.
Like it or hate it, crypto is here to stay.
And it’s actually one of the few technologies that, at least with some of the coins, empowers normal people.
It does empower normal people, unfortunately regulations make it harder to use. Try buying Monero, it is very hard to buy.
They have made it harder, but it’s not really hard.
Just buy any regulated crypto and convert. Cake Wallet makes it easy, but there are many other ways.
I myself hold Bitcoin and Monero.
I disagree - before Bitcoin there was no venmo, cashapp, etc. It took weeks to move big money around. I’m not saying shit like NFT’s ever made sense, and meme coins are fucking stupid - unfortunately the crypto world has been taken over by scammers - but don’t shit on the technology
Since before bitcoin we’ve had Faster Payments in UK. I can transfer money directly to anyone else’s bank account and it’s effectively instant. It’s also free. Venmo and cashapp don’t serve a purpose here.
Same in NL most (all?) banks here have an app that lets you transfer money near instantly, create payment requests, execute payments for online orders by scanning a code, etc. It’s great I think.
Forget bitcoin, Monero in my opinion is how crypto was supposed to be. Monero is untracable compared to bitcoin.
Helpfully, because bitcoin gets all the traderbro attention, monero has actually ended up being (relatively) stable because it has more of a purpose.
That is not the only reason it is stable, because all transactions are private, it doesn’t affect the price unlike bitcoin.
It took weeks to move big money around.
Lol this is just either a statement out of ignorance or a complete lie. Wire transfers didn’t take weeks. Checks didn’t take weeks to clear, and most people aren’t moving “big money” via fucking cash app either.
“Big money” isn’t paying half for an Uber unless you’re like 16 years old.
It’s not a statement out of ignorance and it’s not a lie. Most people don’t try to move huge money around so I’ll illustrate what I had to go through - I had a huge sum of money I had in an online investing company. I had a very time critical situation I needed the money for, so I cashed out my investments - the company only cashed out via check sent via registered mail (maybe they did transfers for smaller amounts, but for the sum I had it was check only). It took almost two weeks for me to get that check. When I deposited that check with my bank, the bank had a mandatory 5-7 business day wait to clear (once again, smaller checks they deposit immediately and then do the clearing process - BIG checks they don’t do that, so I had to wait another week). Once cleared, I had to move the money to another bank, and guess what - I couldn’t take that much cash out, daily transfers are capped at like $1500 or whatever they were, so I had to get a check from the bank. The other bank made me wait another 5-7 business day as well, because the check was just too damn big.
4 weeks it took me to move huge money around, and of course I missed the time critical thing I really needed the money for.
I’m just a random person, not a business, no business accounts, etc. The system just isn’t designed for small folk to move big money
In europe i can send any amount (like up to 100k ) in just a few days since 20 years, to anyone with a bank account in europe, from my computer or phone.
Also, since 2025 every bank allows me to send istant money to any other bank account. For free.
So not any amount then. My point stands
Because they have to compete with crypto.
For the istant money from 2025 I Agree, but the bank transfer part is like that since 20 years
It depends on the bank and the amount you are trying to move.There are banks that might take a week (five business days) or so though very rare and there are banks that might do it instantly. I once used a bank in the US to move money and they sent a physical check and this was domestic not international.
Edit: I thought he meant a week not weeks. Normally a max of five working days.
Wire transfers are how you handle actual big money transfers and it doesn’t take weeks.
International transfers do take time, domestic is instant. International transfer typically take 1-5 days.
1-5 days isn’t “weeks”.
Big money is being held because of anti-money laundering, not because of technology.
Money is held so that interest can be earned on the float.
I am not taking about money being held, I talking about regulations and horrible banks not technology. Yes, the current technology allows you instant transfer, but it still depends on the bank. For example some banks allow free international transfers while others require a small fee, some banks you can do the transfer online while others you have to go to the branch in person. You don’t have to go through a bank with crypto, sometimes it is faster and it is definitely more private.
Wtf? Venmo / cashapp are descendent from PayPal which was released ages before any major crypto.
You love to see it!
Nice. Fuck you Nvidia.
It’s fun seeing these companies take a hit and the bubble deflate, but long term won’t this just make AI a more alluring form of enshittification to a wider audience?
Yeah I’d say so - but you can’t put the genie in the bottle.
It’s just fighting for who gets the privilege to do so
It still rely on nvidia hardware why would it trigger a sell-off? Also why all media are picking up this news? I smell something fishy here…
And you should, generally we are amidst the internet world war. It’s not something fishy but digital rotten eggs thrown around by the hundreds.
The only way to remain sane is to ignore it and scroll on. There is no winning versus geopolitical behemoths as a lone internet adventurer. It’s impossible to tell what’s real and what isn’t
the first casualty of war is truthHere’s someone doing 200 tokens/s (for context, OpenAI doesn’t usually get above 100) on… A Raspberry Pi.
Yes, the “$75-$120 micro computer the size of a credit card” Raspberry Pi.
If all these AI models can be run directly on users devices, or on extremely low end hardware, who needs large quantities of top of the line GPUs?
Wth?! Like seriously.
I assume they are running the smallest version of the model?
Still, very impressive.
i can also run it on my old pentium from 3 decades ago. I’d have to swap 4MiB of weights in and out constantly, it will be very very slow, but it will work.
Sure you can run it on low end hardware, but how does the performance (response time for a given prompt) compare to the other models, either local or as a service?
Thank the fucking sky fairies actually, because even if AI continues to mostly suck it’d be nice if it didn’t swallow up every potable lake in the process. When this shit is efficient that makes it only mildly annoying instead of a complete shitstorm of failure.
While this is great, the training is where the compute is spent. The news is also about R1 being able to be trained, still on an Nvidia cluster but for 6M USD instead of 500
if, on a modern gaming pc, you can get breakneck speeds of 5 tokens per second, then actually inference is quite energy intensive too. 5 per second of anything is very slow
That’s becoming less true. The cost of inference has been rising with bigger models, and even more so with “reasoning models”.
Regardless, at the scale of 100M users, big one-off costs start looking small.
True, but training is one-off. And as you say, a factor 100x less costs with this new model. Therefore NVidia just saw 99% of their expected future demand for AI chips evaporate
Even if they are lying and used more compute, it’s obvious they managed to train it without access to the large amounts of the highest end chips due to export controls.
Conservatively, I think NVidia is definitely going to have to scale down by 50% and they will have to reduce prices by a lot, too, since VC and government billions will no longer be available to their customers.
True, but training is one-off. And as you say, a factor 100x less costs with this new model. Therefore NVidia just saw 99% of their expected future demand for AI chips evaporate
It might also lead to 100x more power to train new models.
I’m not sure. That’s a very static view of the context.
While china has an AI advantage due to wider adoption, less constraints and overall bigger market, the US has higher tech, and more funds.
OpenAI, Anthropic, MS and especially X will all be getting massive amounts of backing and will reverse engineer and adopt whatever advantages R1 had. Which while there are some it’s still not a full spectrum competitor.
I see the is as a small correction that the big players will take advantage of to buy stock, and then pump it with state funds, furthering the gap and ignoring the Chinese advances.
Regardless, Nvidia always wins. They sell the best shovels. In any scenario the world at large still doesn’t have their Nvidia cluster, think Africa, Oceania, South America, Europe, SEA who doesn’t necessarily align with Chinese interests, India. Plenty to go around.
Extra funds are only useful if they can provide a competitive advantage.
Otherwise those investments will not have a positive ROI.
The case until now was built on the premise that US tech was years ahead and that AI had a strong moat due to high computer requirements for AI.
We now know that that isn’t true.
If high compute enables a significant improvement in AI, then that old case could become true again. But the prospects of such a reality happening and staying just got a big hit.
I think we are in for a dot-com type bubble burst, but it will take a few weeks to see if that’s gonna happen or not.
It requires only 5% of the same hardware that OpenAI needs to do the same thing. So that can mean less quantity of top end cards and it can also run on less powerful cards (not top of the line).
Should their models become standard or used more commonly, then nvidis sales will drop.
Doesn’t this just mean that now we can make models 20x more complex using the same hardware? There’s many more problems that advanced Deep Learning models could potentially solve that are far more interesting and useful than a chat bot.
I don’t see how this ends up bad for Nvidia in the long run.
Honestly none of this means anything at the moment. This might be some sort of calculated trickery from China to give Nvidia the finger, or Biden the finger, or a finger to Trump’s AI infrastructure announcement a few days ago, or some other motive.
Maybe this “selloff” is masterminded by the big wall street players (who work hand-in-hand with investor friendly media) to panic retail investors so they can snatch up shares at a discount.
What I do know is that “AI” is a very fast moving tech and shit that was true a few months ago might not be true tomorrow - no one has a crystal ball so we all just gotta wait and see.
There could be some trickery on the training side, i.e. maybe they spent way more than $6M to train it.
But it is clear that they did it without access to the infra that big tech has.
And on the run side, we can all verify how well it runs and people are also running it locally without internet access. There is no trickery there.
They are 20x cheaper than OpenAI if you run it on their servers and if you run it yourself, you only need a small investment in relatively affordable servers.
A year ago the price was $62, now after the fall it is $118. Stocks are volatile, what else is new? Pretty much non-news if you ask me.
The way I understood it, it’s much more efficient so it should require less hardware.
Nvidia will sell that hardware, an obscene amount of it, and line will go up. But it will go up slower than nvidia expected because anything other than infinite and always accelerating growth means you’re not good at business.
Back in the day, that would tell me to buy green.
Of course, that was also long enough ago that you could just swap money from green to red every new staggered product cycle.
