Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    7 months ago

    If Trump is still the nominee, he will likely have been convicted in at least one of those 4 criminal cases, but still holds sway in the party to win anyway and will double-dog-dare Georgia to throw him in jail. In that case, I don’t think enough people would willingly vote for a felon (even a Republican one) to give him a chance.

    This leaves Biden a single thing he absolutely needs to win the election: a pulse. I think the only person keeping America from becoming a fascist dictatorship is not Biden, it’s his cardiologist. That doctor needs to keep Biden’s heart ticking until Jan 21 2025.

    • chakan2@lemmy.world
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      7 months ago

      I don’t think enough people would willingly vote for a felon

      It does lay the groundwork for a civil war. You know some redneck dumb fucks are going to try to break him out of jail, and then it’s on. It’s clear that Trump’s base is voting Trump no matter what.

      • PhlubbaDubba@lemm.ee
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        7 months ago

        His base sure, but his base aren’t all of the people who’ve voted for him, and being a convicted felon is going to tank his numbers outside that base

        • chakan2@lemmy.world
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          7 months ago

          The other people that voted for him are still going to vote for him because R.

          Pretending otherwise is why Biden is behind in the polls.

    • Altofaltception@lemmy.world
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      7 months ago

      From what I’ve heard and seen, a lot of younger voters are disillusioned by the Democrats’ stance on genocide. I’ve heard the comment many are repeating that they are single issue voters when the issue is genocide.

      • Decoy321@lemmy.world
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        7 months ago

        From what I’ve heard and seen, there’s a massive astroturfing effort to discredit Biden over the actions of an allied nation. It’s as if a massive propaganda machine is at work that completely ignores the fact that Republicans would have an even worse stance than Biden on this issue.

        • bhmnscmm@lemmy.world
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          7 months ago

          The “but it could be much worse” argument doesn’t carry much weight for many people on this issue.

          • Decoy321@lemmy.world
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            7 months ago

            Which is still an ignorant take, because we’ve only got two realistic options. Bad and worse.

            Any complaints otherwise are ignorant at best, if not maliciously deceptive.

            • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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              7 months ago

              Which is still an ignorant take, because we’ve only got two realistic options. Bad and worse.

              The solution isn’t “shut up and be grateful we’re not worse”. It’s actually running someone that’s good.

              We’ve tried the “shut up you don’t have a choice” strategy and that just keeps ending up with republicans in office.

              Why not just run good candidates that want to help America if they get in office?

              • chakan2@lemmy.world
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                7 months ago

                Why not just run good candidates that want to help America if they get in office?

                Because that doesn’t make nearly as much money donations as “Look at how awful the Republicans are.”

                If the D’s ran a real candidate that actually cared about the country, they’d get blasted in fund raising…People like Booker would go broke overnight if we got universal healthcare. Pelosi would lose her ass if we outlawed congressional trading.

                We’re fucked…irrevocably completely and utterly fucked.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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      7 months ago

      Moderates are really really motivated to only be just slightly better than Republicans.

      They want to be as corporation/billionaire friendly as possible, so they get as many donations as possible.

      It’s why Hillary spent money, time, and effort boosting trump and Ben Carson in 2016. There wasn’t much difference between her and Jeb Bush, so she didn’t think she had a chance at beating him.

      The obvious risk was Hillary was/is a horrible candidate and might not have even been able to win against them, which she wasn’t.

      It’s like if the pitcher in a MLB game bet for his team to win, but by less than the spread. He still wants to win, but he keeps throwing softballs over the plate if he starts to win too much.

      But that’s just a game, this is literally playing with people’s lives.

      • chakan2@lemmy.world
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        7 months ago

        But that’s just a game, this is literally playing with people’s lives.

        Welcome to US politics.

  • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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    7 months ago

    I keep seeing messaging that essentially amounts to “Biden doesn’t have to try, everything is great actually, and, besides, Trump is unelectable”. Clearly the democrats learned nothing from 2016. This is too big to fuck up, don’t phone it in.