I mean if LLM/Diffusion type AI is a dead-end and the extra investment happening now doesn’t lead anywhere beyond that. Yes, likely the bubble will burst.
But, this kind of investment could create something else. We’ll see. I’m 50/50 on the potential of it myself. I think it’s more likely a lot of loud talking con artists will soak up all the investment and deliver nothing.
bubbles have nothing to do with technology, the tech is just a tool to build the hype. The bubble will burst regardless of the success of the tech at most success will slightly delay the burst, because what is bursting isnt the tech its the financial structures around it.
It’s looking like a dead end. The content that can be fed into the big LLMs has already been done. New stuff is a combination of actual humans and stuff generated by LLMs. It then runs into an ouroboros problem where it just eats its own input.
I mostly agree, with the caveat that 99% of AI usage today just stupid gimmicks and very few people or companies are actually using what LLMs offer effectively.
It kind of feels like when schools got sold those Smart Whiteboards that were supposed to revolutionize teaching in the classroom, only to realize the issue wasn’t the tech, but the fact that the teachers all refused to learn and adapt and let the things gather dust.
I think modern LLMs should be used almost exclusively as an assistive tool to help empower a human worker further, but everyone seems to want an AI that you can just tell ‘do the thing’ and have it spit out a finalized output. We are very far from that stage in my opinion, and as you stated LLM tech is unlikely to get us there without some sort of major paradigm shift.
To be fair, electronic whiteboards are some of the jankiest piles of trash I’ve ever had to use. I swear to God you need to re-calibrate them every 5 minutes.
See Sun Microsystems after the .com bubble burst. They produced a lot of the servers that .com companies were using at the time. Shriveled up after and were eventually absorbed by Oracle.
Why did Oracle survive the same time? Because they latched onto a traditional Fortune 500 market and never let go down to this day.
I doubt it. Regardless of the current stage of machine learning, everyone is now tuned in and pushing the tech. Even if LLMs turn out to be mostly a dead end, everyone investing in ML means that the ability to do LOTS of floating point math very quickly without the heaviness of CPU operations isn’t going away any time soon. Which means nVidia is sitting pretty.
They will eat massive shit when that AI bubble bursts.
No they won’t, this tech isn’t going to go away Even if it plateaus. All the gpus they make will still get used.
The internet didn’t go away but there was still a .com bubble
Well, the employees who were hired to service the bubble and get laid off will eat massive shit, I’m sure NVIDIA and its executives will be fine.
I mean if LLM/Diffusion type AI is a dead-end and the extra investment happening now doesn’t lead anywhere beyond that. Yes, likely the bubble will burst.
But, this kind of investment could create something else. We’ll see. I’m 50/50 on the potential of it myself. I think it’s more likely a lot of loud talking con artists will soak up all the investment and deliver nothing.
bubbles have nothing to do with technology, the tech is just a tool to build the hype. The bubble will burst regardless of the success of the tech at most success will slightly delay the burst, because what is bursting isnt the tech its the financial structures around it.
It’s looking like a dead end. The content that can be fed into the big LLMs has already been done. New stuff is a combination of actual humans and stuff generated by LLMs. It then runs into an ouroboros problem where it just eats its own input.
I mostly agree, with the caveat that 99% of AI usage today just stupid gimmicks and very few people or companies are actually using what LLMs offer effectively.
It kind of feels like when schools got sold those Smart Whiteboards that were supposed to revolutionize teaching in the classroom, only to realize the issue wasn’t the tech, but the fact that the teachers all refused to learn and adapt and let the things gather dust.
I think modern LLMs should be used almost exclusively as an assistive tool to help empower a human worker further, but everyone seems to want an AI that you can just tell ‘do the thing’ and have it spit out a finalized output. We are very far from that stage in my opinion, and as you stated LLM tech is unlikely to get us there without some sort of major paradigm shift.
To be fair, electronic whiteboards are some of the jankiest piles of trash I’ve ever had to use. I swear to God you need to re-calibrate them every 5 minutes.
See Sun Microsystems after the .com bubble burst. They produced a lot of the servers that .com companies were using at the time. Shriveled up after and were eventually absorbed by Oracle.
Why did Oracle survive the same time? Because they latched onto a traditional Fortune 500 market and never let go down to this day.
one can only hope
I doubt it. Regardless of the current stage of machine learning, everyone is now tuned in and pushing the tech. Even if LLMs turn out to be mostly a dead end, everyone investing in ML means that the ability to do LOTS of floating point math very quickly without the heaviness of CPU operations isn’t going away any time soon. Which means nVidia is sitting pretty.
the WWW wasn’t a dead end but the bubble burst anyway. the same will happen to AI because exponential growth is impossible.
It means having a shot at getting a good gaming gpu for cheap