Ah, but I disagree! The “gruesome” part is what changes it; it’s an important detail in Pascal’s Wager. If it were a sudden, painless death? I’d absolutely press it. If it meant death by being buried alive in a coffin? I wouldn’t press it if the odds were 1,000:1, or 10,000:1. The “badness” vs “goodness” factor of each certainly factors into the decision process. The benefit would have to be enormous to outweigh the consequence of a long, terrifying, and/or painful death. Far more than money, for me.
But it if were even 50:1 odds, and the penalty is a sudden and painless death, vs the world being contacted and accepted into Iain Bank’s The Culture? Heck yeah, gimme the button. I might take even worse odds.
And yet, I’m human, and humans are terrible at making decisions based on statistical odds; I’m maybe a little better than average for an American, but only because I have a formal process for making decisions like this. But I don’t apply it intuitively to every risk, so I’m as bad as anyone else, in general.
Imagine that (hypothetical scenario) MDMA heals 70% of people, doesn’t do anything for 10% of people, but throws 20% of people into mental disturbances.
Ah, but I disagree! The “gruesome” part is what changes it; it’s an important detail in Pascal’s Wager. If it were a sudden, painless death? I’d absolutely press it. If it meant death by being buried alive in a coffin? I wouldn’t press it if the odds were 1,000:1, or 10,000:1. The “badness” vs “goodness” factor of each certainly factors into the decision process. The benefit would have to be enormous to outweigh the consequence of a long, terrifying, and/or painful death. Far more than money, for me.
But it if were even 50:1 odds, and the penalty is a sudden and painless death, vs the world being contacted and accepted into Iain Bank’s The Culture? Heck yeah, gimme the button. I might take even worse odds.
And yet, I’m human, and humans are terrible at making decisions based on statistical odds; I’m maybe a little better than average for an American, but only because I have a formal process for making decisions like this. But I don’t apply it intuitively to every risk, so I’m as bad as anyone else, in general.
Imagine that (hypothetical scenario) MDMA heals 70% of people, doesn’t do anything for 10% of people, but throws 20% of people into mental disturbances.
Would you take it?