Title is hyperbole. Essentially the answer is maybe but most likely not. Has a discussion about potential poll error in the context of precision vs. accuracy. Notes that the model assumes accuracy but not precision.

  • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    0
    ·
    5 months ago

    TL;DR Here’s how my model works model model model anyway you gotta subscribe to hear the answer.

    • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      0
      ·
      5 months ago

      For what it’s worth, the first sentence after the subscriber paywall is this,

      My short answer is “no”. Indeed, if I thought polling was predicatbly biased, I’d have built that into the model somehow.