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Cake day: August 14th, 2024

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  • Hur, hur, folks will speak about “DeepSeek won’t let me talk about June 3rd, 1989”

    That’s not really the point nor why investors are bailing.

    Investors are popping bubbles mostly because they already knew nVidia and the AI craze was overvalued. There just wasn’t a hard case for making the short sell.

    That’s where DeepSeek comes in, not because of what they offer, but because of how they did it. nVidia has posed the market that the ONLY means towards the “bright AI future™” is via their advanced chips. Chips mind you, that China does not have access to.

    Well guess who has a pretty advanced model for a country that’s not supposed to have the chips to do that? So one of two things is going on AND it plays well to our AI short sellers.

    1. China is indeed somehow getting those chips even though they aren’t supposed to, which means vendors like Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, etc have Chinese competition and that went so well for American companies last time they had to compete with China.
    2. nVidia is a big fibber, and we don’t actually need their super deluxe chips to get advanced models, meaning team green is overpricing their hardware.

    It’s one of these two situations and it’s THAT, that had investors finally getting that sweet, sweet orgasm of calling bullshit on a market leader. Now the science is still out here. DeepSeek put out a lot of information and open sourced their code on how they went about building their LLM. So, science doing what science does best, there should be some repeatability to what DeepSeek did. And there’s plenty of folks around who have the setup to attempt it. So eventually we should see SeepDeek soon enough or whatever.

    So if we start seeing SeepDeek, Zuckerbot 5000, and so on. Then it’s number two that’s likely true, which means nVidia is going to be hurting. Now if we don’t see any of that coming out, well then arrows start to point to number one. nVidia isn’t hurting too much, but boy oh boy will the vendors not like seeing some of that inventory going to people it shouldn’t be going to. If there’s one thing American Companies hate, it’s competition when there shouldn’t be any.

    That’s the thing with FeepPeaks here. It isn’t that your social credit score will hit the hunny pot for dear leader Xi Jinpoobear. It’s that someone has successfully given the required red meat to the autist that have been chomping at the bit to short the fuck out of team greenbacks. That’s the bigger story here. It’s that sly pandering to the retards of WSB to do what they do best in spite of the recent “US superiority for meme coins and Presidential rug pulls.”

    Now in the end if number two does pull true, it’s a game changer for how nVidia was planing to do this “AI will suck your fucking dick if you buy the top shelf silicon”. What DeepSeek does isn’t a golden goose here, it’s still a bit slower than <<those other LLMs>>, what it does do is get the job done for about the same number of kilowatts coming into your setup.

    Put another way, nVidia’s top tier card gives you the full service, cups the balls, gentle humming, no teeth, all the way to the base. The “Shit we Sell to the Chinese™”, is like the person who spits in their hand once and tries to get the job for the friend done as fast as possible like they were trying to break up asphalt on the Interstate with a jackhammer on cocaine. DeepSeek just showed that you can get the Chinese Bullshit to lick the balls a bit, get some actual stroking in, and use actual lubricant. Still not the full service, but vastly better that the hawk tauh that nVidia was telling folks the bottom tier would get them, which nobody was really liking the idea of.

    That’s what DeeperPeaks here is putting forward. It isn’t a final product, it’s a method, a method for others to build on to take on all those vendors out there telling you that their fancy five star Swedish call girl from nVidia powers their advanced fancy you cannot live without AI model. DeepReeks is telling you that the bottom tier is that nerdy girl from all those 90s movies that if you just let her hair down and take off her glasses, well suddenly you’ve got a hottie. Yeah, she’s still awkward as fuck, but not awkward in that way where she gives you a “Roman salute”, so you might get your lemonade stand LLM model to actually make you some cash.

    That’s the thing here, not the lack of squishy Chinese people from the late 1980s. If you want you too can build one using MeekPeeks that tells you everything about tanks and the human body’s inability to carry one.









  • This is just Trump rescinding Executive Order 13989. Highlights from that EO.

    • No accepting gifts from registered lobbyists or lobbying organizations
    • Revolving door ban, outgoing. (That’s leaving the White House and going directly to work for a job you previously were over in the White House)
    • Revolving door ban, incoming. (That’s being a lobbyist and then getting hired into a department you lobbied.)
    • Revolving door ban, holding the door. (You can’t help others get in or out of a department into or hired from a lobby directly related to the department in question)
    • Golden Parachute Ban. (No hiring you if you had a golden parachute)
    • Vampire clause, everything agreed to here, everyone who reports to the person who agreed must agree to it.

    So the first item is lobbying as usual, but the rest dealt with who could and couldn’t be hired/considered for nominations.

    Power cited in the EO was 3 USC § 301, 5 USC § 3301,7301.

    IMHO: I think the title is horrible.


  • Exactly. What the banks are doing are selling “loans”. Musk has to pay those loans back quote/unquote someday. If the loan is good, you hold on to it as a bank because the interest makes you money. If the loan is bad, you sell it so that you can get some of your money back and make the collection of the loan someone else’s problem.

    Banks will do this for a number of reasons:

    • To manage their balance sheet. Every loan not paid in full is bad and you need to balance good (income/good loans/etc) and bad.
    • Generate immediate liquidity. Banks need to have some hard cash on hand, sometimes they sell to do just that, have hard cash.
    • Free up credit lines to lend to new borrowers. Banks only have so much resources, sometime you cut losses to get new gains.
    • Diversify the risk pool. You want a nice balance between “loans that might default” and “loans likely to not default”.

    Now for everyone else, what the parent to this comment is indicating is the second option in that list. Having to create some cold hard cash suddenly. Usually, there’s a cyclical nature to needing greenbacks by the fistful, but like everything that’s not always true. Something can “happen” and you have a sudden need to have cash in hand pronto. Good way to get that cash is to start selling low hanging fruit if you have it.

    Something like the Twitter loan is a good pitch for low hanging fruit. Musk is terrible at paying the loan back, Twitter is likely to default one day, but Musk suddenly has direct access to some pretty corrupt as fuck ways to actually pay that loan back. From what I’ve read in the article, the sell price is something like 90 to 95 cents on the dollar. So not a huge discount, this ain’t a fire sale.

    But banks might want to offload Musk from their sheets just in case that money is something someone might later investigate. Like that 95 cents on the dollar price is “We think Musk is good for it, but we likely don’t actually want his money.” So you can make that federal investigation in 2033 someone else’s problem, by selling the loan today. The big bank makes about 95% of the original amount back and when Musk goes to pay his loan in Russian Blood Rubles, it’ll be to a bank that get investigated that isn’t <<insert some large bank that would “NEVER” think to take conflicted money>>.

    That’s one theory. But there could be something on the horizon. Something that isn’t right around the corner, but coming up in the distance that the banks want to have cash on hand for. Usually you see a much larger discount, like 60 cents on the dollar, for “holy shit, this stuff is toxic but we need to offload it discreetly before everyone else wises up.”

    I don’t think point one and three apply to Musk’s particular set of loans. But who knows?! Only the bankers do.




  • No, you have a point and I wrote that oddly. I’m not saying we can only have one or the other. But yeah, my comment makes it sound like we can’t do helping small businesses without first taking care of large corporations. We can have both things happening.

    That’s on me, I wasn’t entirely clear in that comment. We can have the small business help and that would provide benefit to small businesses. But small businesses won’t thrive until we ease up the grip that particular companies have on select industries.


  • Having more small businesses is how you get less corporations and a healthier middle class

    Except when the corporations just buy the small business. This is the big problem with breaking into an industry. If you do find a way to break in, then one of the larger guys will just buy you out or force you out. Facebook bought Insta for the sole reason to reduce competition. Meta bought them out at $1B, which was huge for a small business buyout. Post-Meta, Insta is now estimated to be worth $100B Literally a penny on the dollar for the buyout. Meta also bought out WhatsApp at $19B, currently estimated to be $109B worth today. Like things that are regular names at this point were once small businesses that were serious threats to larger companies. Meta’s Messenger was under serious threat by WhatsApp prior to the buy out.

    And sometimes the point is to just get rid of the business altogether. Microsoft bought out Wunderlist for the sole reason to kill off the app. Google bought out Waze and has constantly been keeping them just functioning, but in 2020 the FTC launched yet another investigation into Google over Waze.

    Small businesses won’t thrive without restricting some of the anti-competitive behavior of the larger corporations.