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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • I’m sure there are plenty of Israelis that want to do this even if they won’t admit it to themselves but this isn’t the final anything. The IDF has killed around 37,000 Palestinians out of ~2.3 million. That’s horrible but nowhere near the “barely any left” stage.

    A genocide on the scale of millions takes industrial effort to accomplish. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but given Israel’s reliance on foreign aid, current industrial capacity, and political position, it seems unlikely. My guess is Israel will take some more territory and the conflict (kinda tough to call the IDF bombing almost exclusively civilians a war) will peter out. Foreign aid will be allowed back in and Israel will put its mask back on.

    Personally, I don’t see how this doesn’t end with half the middle east actively going to war with Israel if they don’t stop soon. The only thing really keeping them safe is the US, and Israel has burned a lot of political capital here. Their leaders are awful, power-hungry shits, but they’re not stupid. If they don’t try to rebuild some of that, there’s every chance that Israel loses its lifeline.

    What comes years after that, I don’t know. Gazan sentiment towards Israel was already overwhelmingly negative before this, but the IDF has never done anything on this scale before. I don’t think Israel can allow Gaza any type of self-governance for decades after this. This is beyond even post-WW2 Japan levels of destruction, and unlike Japan every nation around them is still on their side.