It was not a prediction of victory… it was a 71% chance of winning the electoral college. Said another way, they gave her a 29% chance of losing.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

ahhhh yes, that makes perfect sense… thank you for pointing that out! Especially since I’m not good enough with vi to know how to bulk delete the first character in specific lines, I had to manually arrow and delete.

I successfully migrated postgres 15 to 16. I followed the general idea of the guide you posted, but I found it a little easier to do a slightly different process. Here’s what I did:

1. docker-compose down for the lemmy instance
2. edit the docker-compose.yml file and comment out all of the services except postgres. In addition, add a new volume to the postgres service that looks something like this: - ./volumes/miscfiles:/miscfiles
3. docker-compose up -d for the lemmy instance (the only container running at this point will be postgres)
4. docker exec -it [container name] pg_dumpall -U [username] -f /miscfiles/pgdumpall20240628 (I think this will work, but it’s not exactly what I did… rather, I ran docker exec -it [container name] bash, and then ran pgdumpall -U [username] -f /miscfiles/pgdumpall20240628. The end result is a dumpall file saved in the ./volumes/miscfiles directory on the host machine)
5. docker-compose down
6. mv ./volumes/postgres ./volumes/postgresBAK20240628 (move your existing postgres data to a new directory for backup purposes)
7. mkdir ./volumes/postgres (re-create an empty postgres data folder. make sure the owner and permissions match the postgresBAK20240628 directory)
8. edit the docker-compose.yml and update the postgres image tag to the new version
9. docker-compose up -d (you’ll now have a brand new postgres container running with the new version)
10. docker-exec -it [container name] psql -U [username] -f /miscfiles/pgdumpall20240628 (again, I think this will work, but I bashed in and ran the command from within the container. This also allows you to watch the file execute all of the commands… I don’t know if it will do that if you run it from the host.)
11. docker-compose down
12. edit the docker-compose.yml and un-comment all of the other services that you commented out in step 2
13. docker-compose up -d

Hopefully that helps anyone that might need it!

I agree… I was simply clarifying that Nate Silver did NOT predict that Hillary would win (nor is he predicting that Trump will win this election), which is a common misunderstanding about probability. For these types of models to be meaningful to the public, there needs to be literacy on what is meant by the percentages given. Really, I’m just reinforcing rodneylives’ point from another angle!

I don’t remember him predicting that she would win. His model (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) gave her a 71% chance of winning. 71% is a long way from 100%, and the result of that election definitely fit within the model.

That said, you are absolutely correct… we need to keep shining a light on the realities of each of these candidates, because in the light of day Biden is a much better choice than Trump.

Stop j’terrorizing me!