China is manipulating events to ensure that they are the future, getting Trump to create chaos by proxy through Putin to demonstrate to the world that the US is an unreliable leader/partner. They will make the case that they are a stable world power who can be relied on to stay true to their agreements, and they will point to the chaos that Trump is creating as an example. Trump will turn the US into an economic pariah.

Trump’s rhetoric on taking over Greenland and Canada will also ruffle military alliances and the traditional Western powers will fracture. If the US does make any aggressive moves China will likely support whomever the US targets; economically and policy-wise at first, but potentially with military power to demonstrate that it, unlike Russia, is truly a near-peer adversary of the US. Assuming success, because there will be virtually no will in the US for supporting an actual protracted invasion of another sovereign nation that is causing international problems, China will then lay claim to victory in their first major head-to-head clash with the US. World opinion of the US as the leading superpower will wane, and China will continue to make inroads at taking over leadership of the world economy.

I could see a scenario in which China takes the lead at mediating between Russia and Ukraine and forcing Putin to withdraw, and even declaring that they no longer have any intention of invading Taiwan because they have a greater purpose in leading the world to a new era of peace. That would be the final nail in the coffin for the US politically, and China would do everything it could to ensure that the US was held in-check to keep the dollar weak so that they can never challenge China’s economic leadership again.