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Cake day: October 6th, 2023

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  • That’s true, it does assume interstellar travel is physically possible, but at this point there are forms of interstellar travel that we know are possible.

    Solar sails for instance, we know those work, we’ve tried it. Now if you wanted to travel to another star system with a solar sail, it’s just a matter of scaling that proven technology way up. We’re not ready to do that today, and we won’t be ready in the next 20 years, but to think that we wouldn’t be ready in 500 years, I find that idea far fetched.

    But a much better technology would be fusion propulsion. With fusion drives you could get your cruising speed up to a meaningful fraction of the speed of light (perhaps 5-10%). At that rate you can make it to the closest stars in less than 100 years. And that technology is not at all far fetched. We truly are approaching working fusion power plants, it’s extremely likely that we can eventually develop fusion propulsion, or at the very least, fusion powered electrical propulsion (ion drive).

    As for if it will ever be economically possible, I’m not at all worried about that. The fact is, there are a lot of resources and opportunities right here in our solar system, just waiting for people to utilize them. So people definitely will start mining and manufacturing in space eventually. And as we start to operate more in space, we will naturally continue to iterate and improve our methods of getting around. In short, over time it’s going to get cheaper and cheaper to make space ships and we’re going to get better and better at doing it. The economic factors are likely to fall into place eventually.

    And finally, will interstellar travel ever be possible socially? Hey, your guess is as good as mine. I don’t think we have any way to answer that…


  • That’s definitely the right question! And honestly we don’t know, but it’s evident that we are first.

    Given the age of the universe, statistically it should have already happened by now.

    I’m not sure that’s true… I’m pretty sure that our sun is old for a main sequence yellow star in our galaxy. When you compare how long it takes for a star to get to the point ours is now, compared to the age of our galaxy, I believe it suggests that sol is part of a first wave of stars of its type. So if life really requires a star like this one to start up, then intelligent life starting just now could be right on time.

    Now why is our start perfect for life? Again, we don’t know, but evidently it is. Sadly we only have this one data point, this is the only star where we know there’s life. So assuming that something about our type of star is perfect is about as sensible as assuming that life could start around any star.

    So declaring “we’re the first” requires some assumptions, but they aren’t crazy assumptions, and a lack of evidence of other older civilizations makes those assumptions stronger.

    And to your point, the universe is much older than this it star, so I suspect intelligent life has developed many times before us, at least in older galaxies. But sadly I don’t expect us to ever meet life from another galaxy. While I think stars within a galaxy are close enough for travel between them, galaxies are very, very far apart. I don’t think life has much chance of traveling to other galaxies, at least not without some method of ftl travel (which I am also not optimistic about).


  • The whole ship either has to have enough energy to last potentially 100000 years.

    Well, that depends on how far you’re going. If you pick a nice close target, let’s say 3 light years away, you can potentially get there pretty quickly. With fusion propulsion systems you could make the trip is something like 70 years, coasting most of the way. I’d need to check the math to get exact numbers, but I recall fusion allowing for pretty reasonable trip times.

    But if you can survive for hundreds or thousands of years, then solar sails become an option. Then it becomes a materials science problem of how thin can you make a sail that will still hold together. The greater the sail to payload ratio, the faster you go.




  • I don’t think there is a great filter. I think there’s an easy solution to the fermi paradox that doesn’t require great filters:

    Here’s my hypothesis, intelligent species that manage to develop space travel do tend to expand out into their galaxy. When they achieve this level of technology they can settle most all of their galaxy in a matter of 10,000 years or so. That time period is very brief on an evolutionary scale. It’s estimated that life began on earth 3.7 billion years ago. That means it took about 3.7 billion years for earth to produce intelligent life, and then from that point it would take a mere 10,000 years to reach modern day, and 10,000 more years to settle the whole galaxy. That expansion happens so quickly compared to how long it took the planet to develop intelligent life, that the chance of two civilizations rising at the same time becomes very small.

    It all boils down to this: there are no intelligent aliens out there in our galaxy, because we are the first intelligent species in our galaxy. We know we’re the first because if we were second, then aliens would already have settled this star system.

    Probably there are lots of alien civilizations out there in the universe, but they’re in different galaxies.



  • I totally agree. I know a teacher who who likes to say:

    “I believe there really is no such thing as a dumb question. As long as it’s an honest question (not rhetorical or sarcastic), then it’s a genuine request for more information. So even if it’s coming from a place of extreme ignorance, asking a question is an attempt to learn something, and the effort should be applauded.”