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Cake day: March 26th, 2024

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  • Then we got the leaks saying the Chinese Military is Fubared by corruption down to the warehouse workers.

    Russia could at least limp into Donbas when their Kiev assault disintegrated. If China tries to invade Taiwan and their missiles don’t launch, it will be a stupidly expensive, deadly, embarrassment. Just ships and planes littering the ocean floor.

    Xhi needs to be confident that his navy won’t get pulled into Taipei ports by tugboat like Russian Tanks in the cornfields.







  • That’s, a remarkably rosy set of predictions.

    I hope you are right, and big picture, I think things might shake out that way eventually.

    But I am not as optimistic as you on several points.

    I don’t think LLM AI will do as much as you claim as fast as you imagine.

    I don’t think the owner class will put enough pressure on the politicians to generate that level of systemic change. They will muddle through with a thousand band aids stuck together.

    Which will lead to an increasingly dystopic hellscape in which young people increasingly persue careers as scam artists, wanna be celebrities, and outright criminals because those are the only paths to a comfortable life.

    But so hope to be wrong. Good luck to us all.








  • France made childcare and education free and relatively high quality and look at that! They have just under replacement level fertility!

    Some people do want children. Not everyone, but lots of people do. It’s true that wealth depresses fertility, but you can have a sustainable society if you give people financial security.

    I’m willing to believe there are some cultural issues at play, not just the economics, but that is for demographers to tease out.

    The American congressional representatives have an average of 2 children. Replacement rate. Get our standard of living up to that and you will see fertility go up.